对洪都拉斯与中国建交的看法

编者按：美国智库“美洲对话组织”出版的LATIN AMERICA ADVISOR (LAA)每期都有一个“专题讨论”。2023年3月24日出版的这一期讨论了洪都拉斯与中国建交。以下是LAA的提问和江时学的回答。

Q:Honduran President Xiomara Castro on March 14 announcer that she would seek to establish diplomatic relationships with China, implying that Honduras will break its ties with Taiwan. China views Taiwan as part of its territory-a position Taiwan strongly contests-and refuses most contact with countries that maintain formal ties with the island's government. The move would leave Taiwan with only 13 diplomatic allies around the world, most of which are in Latin America and the Caribbean, including Guatemala and Paraguay. What is Honduras seeking to gain from China? What are the geopolitical implications of Honduras' shift in alignment, and how might it influence the rest of the region? How significant is Honduras’ rapprochement with China to Taiwan?

A: Jiang Shixue, professor and director of the Center for Latin American Studies at Shanghai University:

“The island of Taiwan has been an inseparable part of China's territory for 1,800 years and it's crystal clear that the two sides of the Taiwan Straits belong to one China, and the government of the People's Republic of China (PRC) is the only legitimate government representing the whole of China. This one-China principle represents the universal consensus of the international community. That is why, to date, 181 countries, including the United States and 25 countries from Latin America and the Caribbean, have accepted this principle.

If Honduras can do the same, Taiwan’s efforts to seek independence would suffer one more setback. At the same time, Honduras’ diplomatic relations with the PRC will develop much more rapidly than ever. In particular, bilateral economic relations in the field of investment and trade will help push forward the growth of the Central American country’s economy. Furthermore, a prosperous Honduras is beneficial not only to the Central American region as a whole, but also to the United States as there would be less Honduran migrants moving northwards.

Hopefully, the other seven countries in the western hemisphere that still maintain “diplomatic relation” with the Chinese Province of Taiwan, i.e., Belize, Guatemala, Haiti, Paraguay, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, and Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, will soon respect the one-China principle. But it is anybody’s guess whether the United States would allow them to pursue an independent foreign policy.”